Psychometric Racial and Ethnic Predictive Inequities

Recent findings have held that offender behavioral assessments unfairly predict the probation outcomes of racial/ethnic minorities. To that end, this study examines the extent and degree to which a commonly used offender risk needs assessment instrument equitably predicts probationer success and distributes predictive error. Findings suggest that the risk needs instrument predicts most equitably for “higher risked” probationers and that error is more likely for under-classified Blacks and over-classified Whites. The discussion presents issues for consideration by policy makers, practitioners, and future researchers motivated by the minimization of predictive bias.